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Istiqlol vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
6/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze (Dushanbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Istiqlol44%
×Draw24%
Altyn Asyr31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.62
Altyn Asyr
1.33

Istiqlol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.38
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.08
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
69%
Istiqlol or Altyn Asyr
76%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
56%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
23%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
80%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
48%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
22%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
74%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
38%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
58%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.38 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Istiqlol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Istiqlol scores more
44%
level
24%
Altyn Asyr scores more
31%

Istiqlol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Altyn Asyr

Istiqlol and Altyn Asyr drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze (Dushanbe).