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Istiqlol vs Al Wihdat — AFC Cup 2018

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Wihdat
Al Wihdat
10/22/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Istiqlol43%
×Draw25%
Al Wihdat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
1.51
Al Wihdat
1.25

Istiqlol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
1.38
Al Wihdat
1.43

allows per match

Istiqlol
1.08
Al Wihdat
1.64

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Al Wihdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
69%
Istiqlol or Al Wihdat
75%
Draw or Al Wihdat
57%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
21%
Al Wihdat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
78%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
44%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
19%
Al Wihdat 1+ goals
71%
Al Wihdat 2+ goals
36%
Al Wihdat 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
58%
Al Wihdat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.38 + Al Wihdat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Al Wihdat attack 1.43 + Istiqlol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Istiqlol scores more
43%
level
25%
Al Wihdat scores more
31%

Istiqlol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Istiqlol 0–1 Al Wihdat

Al Wihdat beat Istiqlol 1-0 in AFC Cup on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe.