Istiqlol 0–4 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Al-Nassr

A. Yahya 90'

S. Mane 84'

M. Simakan 40'

Joao Felix 12' (pen)

11/26/2025

AFC Champions League Two · Group Stage - 5Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Istiqlol12%

×Draw19%

Al-Nassr69%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.13

Istiqlol

0.77

Al-Nassr

2.13

Al-Nassr creates 177% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

2.60

1.67

allows per match

0.20

creates per match

Istiqlol

1.33

Al-Nassr

2.60

allows per match

Istiqlol

1.67

Al-Nassr

0.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

31%

Istiqlol or Al-Nassr

81%

Draw or Al-Nassr

88%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

3%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

54%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

18%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

4%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

88%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

63%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

15%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.33 + Al-Nassr defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Al-Nassr attack 2.60 + Istiqlol defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Istiqlol scores more

12%

level

19%

Al-Nassr scores more

69%

Al-Nassr at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Simakan

Al-Nassr · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

Joao FelixPenalty

18'

Joseph Okoro

40'

M. Simakan↳ A. Al Hassan

46'

P. Komolafe← S. Haghnazari

46'

R. Dehghani← M. Chobanov

67'

S. Mane← M. Maran

67'

A. Al Khaibari← A. Al Hassan

67'

I. Martinez← M. Simakan

80'

N. Boushal← S. Al Najdi

80'

A. Yahya← M. Brozovic

82'

M. Gafurov← R. Soirov

84'

S. Mane↳ Joao Felix

90'

Sultan Al-Ghannam

90'

A. Yahya↳ Angelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IstiqlolAl-Nassr

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots16

3Corners6

10Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots16

2On Target9

2Off Target6

5Blocked1

2Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

295Total Passes616

215Accurate Passes527

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

15Offsides2