Istaravshan 2–0 Lokomotive Pamir: Result & Stats

Istaravshan

FT

2 – 0

Lokomotive Pamir

6/27/2020

Vysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Istaravshan47%

×Draw32%

Lokomotive Pamir21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstaravshanExpected goals in this matchLokomotive Pamir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.63

Istaravshan

1.10

Lokomotive Pamir

0.63

Istaravshan creates 75% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 9 away

1.21

creates per match

0.11

1.15

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Istaravshan

1.21

Lokomotive Pamir

0.11

allows per match

Istaravshan

1.15

Lokomotive Pamir

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw

79%

Istaravshan or Lokomotive Pamir

68%

Draw or Lokomotive Pamir

53%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+

20%

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals

67%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

30%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

10%

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals

47%

Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals

13%

Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

69%

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.21 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Istaravshan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Istaravshan scores more

47%

level

32%

Lokomotive Pamir scores more

21%

Istaravshan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff