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Istaravshan vs Eskhata — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
0 – 1
Eskhata
Eskhata
10/5/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Istaravshan39%
×Draw25%
Eskhata36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.46
Eskhata
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 24 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.12
Eskhata
1.50

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.29
Eskhata
1.79

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Eskhata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
64%
Istaravshan or Eskhata
75%
Draw or Eskhata
61%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
18%
Eskhata wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
77%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
43%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
18%
Eskhata 1+ goals
75%
Eskhata 2+ goals
41%
Eskhata 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
52%
Eskhata (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.12 + Eskhata defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Eskhata attack 1.50 + Istaravshan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Istaravshan scores more
39%
level
25%
Eskhata scores more
36%

Istaravshan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istaravshan 0–1 Eskhata

Eskhata beat Istaravshan 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Istaravshan in Istaravshan.