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İstanbulspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
4/4/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 32Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

İstanbulspor70%
×Draw17%
Yeni Malatyaspor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
2.44
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.93

İstanbulspor creates 162% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 33 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
1.72
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.17
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
87%
İstanbulspor or Yeni Malatyaspor
83%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
30%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
48%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
91%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
70%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
43%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
61%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
24%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
85%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.44

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
70%
level
17%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
13%

İstanbulspor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: İstanbulspor 5–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

İstanbulspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 5-0 in 1. Lig on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.