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İstanbulspor vs Tarsus İdman Yurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
11/25/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

İstanbulspor60%
×Draw20%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
2.25
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.25

İstanbulspor creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
2.50
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.00

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.50
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
2.00

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Tarsus İdman Yurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Tarsus İdman Yurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
80%
İstanbulspor or Tarsus İdman Yurdu
80%
Draw or Tarsus İdman Yurdu
40%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
37%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
89%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
65%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
39%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1+ goals
71%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2+ goals
36%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
74%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Tarsus İdman Yurdu away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Tarsus İdman Yurdu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Tarsus İdman Yurdu attack 1.00 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
60%
level
20%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu scores more
20%

İstanbulspor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İstanbulspor 0–1 Tarsus İdman Yurdu

Tarsus İdman Yurdu beat İstanbulspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.