İstanbulspor 1–1 Kepezspor: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kepezspor

M. Mamadou 118'

D. Traoré 39'

O. Dursun 115', 101'

Y. Basravi 45+1' (pen)

11/1/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

İstanbulspor77%

×Draw13%

Kepezspor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchKepezspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.45

1.25

İstanbulspor

3.45

Kepezspor

1.25

İstanbulspor creates 176% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

4.40

creates per match

İstanbulspor

2.50

Kepezspor

1.00

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.50

Kepezspor

4.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Kepezspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Kepezspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

90%

İstanbulspor or Kepezspor

87%

Draw or Kepezspor

23%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

59%

Kepezspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

97%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

85%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

65%

Kepezspor 1+ goals

71%

Kepezspor 2+ goals

36%

Kepezspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

88%

Kepezspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Kepezspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Kepezspor defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.45

Kepezspor attack 1.00 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

77%

level

13%

Kepezspor scores more

10%

İstanbulspor at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

D. Traoré

45+1'

Y. BasraviPenalty

58'

M. Acar← S. Velioğlu

65'

E. Rroca← E. Gültekin

65'

A. Ndao← D. Sambissa

65'

M. Sarıkaya← G. Imbula

67'

F. Öcal← A. Dikmen

67'

A. Teker← M. Durgut

80'

A. Üresin← M. Kol

80'

H. Gündoğdu← Y. Basravi

84'

B. Kirtas

90'

O. Erdoğan← V. Temel

90'

F. Loshaj← M. Vorobjovas

95'

101'

106'

115'

118'

İstanbulspor

Kepezspor

1

İslah

4

Sevilgen

2

▼

Kol

26

Demir

5

▼

Velioğlu

27

⚽

▼

Basravi

35

▼

Kocabaş

16

Timurcioğ

20

▼

Dikmen

99

⚽2

Dursun

11

▼

59

13

4

28

16

▼

Imbula

6

▼

Vorobjova

8

▼

Temel

7

▼

Sambissa

19

▼

Gültekin

12

⚽

Mamadou

88

⚽

▼

Traoré

Manager: F. Tekke

65'▲E. Rroca←▼E. Gültekin

65'▲A. Ndao←▼D. Sambissa

65'▲M. Sarıkaya←▼G. Imbula

90'▲O. Erdoğan←▼V. Temel

90'▲F. Loshaj←▼M. Vorobjovas

106'▲K. Köylü←▼D. Traoré

İstanbulspor substitutes

10Rroca18Ndao24Sarıkaya23Erdoğan34Loshaj11Köylü26Serbest20Şahan52Topatar41Şamdanlı

Manager: Ç. Çavuş

58'▲M. Acar←▼S. Velioğlu

67'▲F. Öcal←▼A. Dikmen

67'▲A. Teker←▼M. Durgut

80'▲A. Üresin←▼M. Kol

80'▲H. Gündoğdu←▼Y. Basravi

95'▲S. Özen←▼M. Kocabaş

Kepezspor substitutes

88Acar37Öcal17Teker7Üresin21Gündoğdu19Özen24Gülal65Biçer33Ökten22Atlı