İstanbulspor 2–0 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kasımpaşa

M. Krstovski 32', 7'

2/6/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 3Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

İstanbulspor62%

×Draw20%

Kasımpaşa17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.00

İstanbulspor

2.10

Kasımpaşa

1.00

İstanbulspor creates 110% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

2.70

creates per match

0.50

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

İstanbulspor

2.70

Kasımpaşa

0.50

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.50

Kasımpaşa

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

83%

İstanbulspor or Kasımpaşa

80%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

38%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

39%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

88%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

62%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

35%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

63%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

26%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

78%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.70 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kasımpaşa attack 0.50 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

62%

level

20%

Kasımpaşa scores more

17%

İstanbulspor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

18'

32'

40'

46'

A. Ateş← D. Mermerci̇

61'

Serhat Akcay

67'

B. Yıldız← D. Erdoğan

70'

D. Duhaney← M. Krstovski

76'

Ö. Ecin← A. Aktaş

77'

B. Muratoğlu← S. Akçay

77'

M. Ayeş← S. Alkaş

80'

Y. Polat← D. Aksu

86'

Ü. Kurt← Y. Bahadır

86'

E. Şan← Ş. Özcan

86'

B. Turalı← Y. İnci

İstanbulspor4-2-3-1

Kasımpaşa4-2-3-1

23

▼

Alkaş

19

Yavrucu

22

▼

İnci

42

Yiğit

81

▼

Erdoğan

15

Suakar

13

▼

Aktaş

55

Atakaya

29

Aydın

80

▼

61

28

44

3

▼

Aksu

15

Fidan

2

▼

Bahadır

90

▼

83

30

34

70

▼

Özcan

77

⚽2

▼

Krstovski

Manager: O. Korkmaz

46'▲A. Ateş←▼D. Mermerci̇

70'▲D. Duhaney←▼M. Krstovski

80'▲Y. Polat←▼D. Aksu

86'▲Ü. Kurt←▼Y. Bahadır

86'▲E. Şan←▼Ş. Özcan

İstanbulspor substitutes

25Ateş21Duhaney91Polat93Kurt97Şan35Yitmez96Akdağ

Manager: B. Yılmaz

67'▲B. Yıldız←▼D. Erdoğan

76'▲Ö. Ecin←▼A. Aktaş

77'▲B. Muratoğlu←▼S. Akçay

77'▲M. Ayeş←▼S. Alkaş

86'▲B. Turalı←▼Y. İnci

Kasımpaşa substitutes

82Yıldız85Ecin47Muratoğlu87Ayeş84Turalı86Ketahte98Kazancı88Doğan83Çetinkaya24Şehitoğlu