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İstanbulspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
1/26/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 19Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

İstanbulspor32%
×Draw25%
Gaziantep FK43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
1.33
Gaziantep FK
1.58

Gaziantep FK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
1.72
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.17
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
57%
İstanbulspor or Gaziantep FK
75%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
68%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
14%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
74%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
38%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
15%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
79%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
47%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
43%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
32%
level
25%
Gaziantep FK scores more
43%

Gaziantep FK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Gaziantep FK

İstanbulspor and Gaziantep FK drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.