İstanbulspor 0–2 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Galatasaray

1 M. Icardi 89', 45+11' (pen)

5/16/2023

League #203 · Round 34Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

İstanbulspor12%

×Draw22%

Galatasaray66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

1.84

İstanbulspor

0.64

Galatasaray

1.84

Galatasaray creates 188% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 32 away

0.40

creates per match

1.88

1.80

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

İstanbulspor

0.40

Galatasaray

1.88

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.80

Galatasaray

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–115%

0–214%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

34%

İstanbulspor or Galatasaray

78%

Draw or Galatasaray

88%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

3%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

47%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

14%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

3%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

84%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

55%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

16%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 0.40 + Galatasaray defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Galatasaray attack 1.88 + İstanbulspor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

12%

level

22%

Galatasaray scores more

66%

Galatasaray at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Aktürkoğlu

Galatasaray · M

8.6

Match Events

41'

Eduart Rroca

45+10'

Tuncer Duhan Aksu

45+16'

Mauro IcardiGoal cancelled

45+9'

Milot RashicaPenalty confirmed

45+11'

1 M. IcardiPenalty

46'

F. Midtsjø← Sérgio Oliveira

63'

J. Lokilo← V. Ethemi

64'

E. Gültekin← E. Rroca

69'

N. Zaniolo← M. Rashica

71'

Fredrik Midtsjø

75'

Nicolò Zaniolo

75'

Nicolò ZanioloCard upgrade

79'

K. Ayhan← L. Dubois

79'

B. Yılmaz← D. Mertens

83'

Okan Erdoğan

83'

S. Guri← E. Eze

89'

M. Icardi↳ K. Aktürkoğlu

90+1'

B. Kutlu← K. Aktürkoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporGalatasaray

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots22

3Corners9

12Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots22

1On Target4

6Off Target9

3Blocked9

3Inside Box15

7Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes482

295Accurate Passes393

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

League #203: İstanbulspor 0–2 Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat İstanbulspor 2-0 in League #203 on May 16, 2023.

Goals: 1 M. Icardi (45+11' pen), M. Icardi (89').

Galatasaray controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.

İstanbulspor vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: İstanbulspor 0–2 Galatasaray