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İstanbulspor vs Fenerbahçe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
12/18/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

İstanbulspor35%
×Draw23%
Fenerbahçe42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
1.60
Fenerbahçe
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
2.50
Fenerbahçe
2.00

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.50
Fenerbahçe
0.71

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
58%
İstanbulspor or Fenerbahçe
77%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
65%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
17%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
80%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
47%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
22%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
83%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
52%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
46%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fenerbahçe attack 2.00 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
35%
level
23%
Fenerbahçe scores more
42%

Fenerbahçe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İstanbulspor 0–2 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat İstanbulspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 18, 2019.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.