Fenerbahçe 6–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

İstanbulspor

J. King 78'

S. Dursun 76'

B. Osayi-Samuel 66'

D. Tadić 35'

S. Szymański 15'

E. Džeko 8' (pen)

5/26/2024

League #203 · Round 38Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fenerbahçe79%

×Draw12%

İstanbulspor9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

1.00

Fenerbahçe

3.21

İstanbulspor

1.00

Fenerbahçe creates 221% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

2.75

creates per match

0.83

1.17

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.75

İstanbulspor

0.83

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.17

İstanbulspor

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

91%

Fenerbahçe or İstanbulspor

88%

Draw or İstanbulspor

21%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

61%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

96%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

82%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

60%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

63%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

26%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

90%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.75 + İstanbulspor defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.21

İstanbulspor attack 0.83 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

79%

level

12%

İstanbulspor scores more

9%

Fenerbahçe at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53

S. Szymański

Fenerbahçe · M

9.3

Match Events

6'

Serdar DursunPenalty confirmed

8'

E. DžekoPenalty

15'

35'

46'

57'

58'

64'

L. Bonucci← Rodrigo Becão

66'

B. Osayi-Samuel↳ D. Tadić

73'

M. Müldür← B. Osayi-Samuel

75'

76'

78'

80'

86'

E. Vuruşaner← B. Vardar

86'

E. Şan← Jackson

86'

D. Mermerci̇← M. Mamadou

89'

Y. Akçiçek← Ç. Söyüncü

89'

F. Akyüz← D. Livaković

90+3'

Leonardo Bonucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Fenerbahçeİstanbulspor

Overview

54%Possession46%

26Total Shots9

5.80Expected Goals (xG)0.27

4Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

26Total Shots9

15On Target2

8Off Target6

3Blocked1

18Inside Box2

8Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

469Total Passes401

396Accurate Passes325

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

-0.49Goals Prevented-0.49

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

League #203: Fenerbahçe 6–0 İstanbulspor

Fenerbahçe beat İstanbulspor 6-0 in League #203 on May 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Džeko (8' pen), S. Szymański (15'), D. Tadić (35'), B. Osayi-Samuel (66'), S. Dursun (76'), J. King (78').

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Fenerbahçe 6–0 İstanbulspor