İstanbulspor 5–0 Ergene Velimeşespor

İstanbulspor

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ergene Velimeşespor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İstanbulspor75%

×Draw15%

Ergene Velimeşespor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchErgene Velimeşespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.92

İstanbulspor

2.75

Ergene Velimeşespor

0.92

İstanbulspor creates 199% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

0.33

1.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

İstanbulspor

2.50

Ergene Velimeşespor

0.33

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.50

Ergene Velimeşespor

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Ergene Velimeşespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Ergene Velimeşespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

90%

İstanbulspor or Ergene Velimeşespor

85%

Draw or Ergene Velimeşespor

25%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

54%

Ergene Velimeşespor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

93%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

75%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

51%

Ergene Velimeşespor 1+ goals

60%

Ergene Velimeşespor 2+ goals

23%

Ergene Velimeşespor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

88%

Ergene Velimeşespor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Ergene Velimeşespor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Ergene Velimeşespor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Ergene Velimeşespor attack 0.33 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

75%

level

15%

Ergene Velimeşespor scores more

10%

İstanbulspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff