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İstanbulspor vs Elazığspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Elazığspor
Elazığspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundNecmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İstanbulspor67%
×Draw18%
Elazığspor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
2.42
Elazığspor
1.08

İstanbulspor creates 124% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
2.50
Elazığspor
0.67

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.50
Elazığspor
2.33

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Elazığspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
85%
İstanbulspor or Elazığspor
82%
Draw or Elazığspor
33%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
44%
Elazığspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
91%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
69%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
43%
Elazığspor 1+ goals
66%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
29%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
81%
Elazığspor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Elazığspor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Elazığspor attack 0.67 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
67%
level
18%
Elazığspor scores more
15%

İstanbulspor at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Elazığspor

İstanbulspor beat Elazığspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.