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İstanbulspor vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
9/19/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 6Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

İstanbulspor42%
×Draw26%
Çorum FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
1.45
Çorum FK
1.26

İstanbulspor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 57 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
1.72
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.17
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
67%
İstanbulspor or Çorum FK
74%
Draw or Çorum FK
58%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
20%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
77%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
42%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
18%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
72%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
36%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
56%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.72 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.45

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + İstanbulspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
42%
level
26%
Çorum FK scores more
33%

İstanbulspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Çorum FK

İstanbulspor beat Çorum FK 3-1 in 1. Lig on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Istanbul.