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İstanbulspor vs Alanya 1221 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
12/4/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundEsenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

İstanbulspor64%
×Draw18%
Alanya 1221 FK18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İstanbulspor
2.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.25

İstanbulspor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

İstanbulspor
2.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.00

allows per match

İstanbulspor
1.50
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par
Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw
82%
İstanbulspor or Alanya 1221 FK
82%
Draw or Alanya 1221 FK
36%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+
43%
Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals
92%
İstanbulspor 2+ goals
71%
İstanbulspor 3+ goals
45%
Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
71%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
36%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)
78%
Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 2.50 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + İstanbulspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

İstanbulspor scores more
64%
level
18%
Alanya 1221 FK scores more
18%

İstanbulspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Alanya 1221 FK

İstanbulspor beat Alanya 1221 FK 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in İstanbul.