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Issy W vs Stade de Reims W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Issy W
Issy W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
6/5/2021Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Stade Le Gallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Issy W21%
×Draw19%
Stade de Reims W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issy W
1.36
Stade de Reims W
2.42

Stade de Reims W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 65 away

creates per match

Issy W
0.78
Stade de Reims W
1.31

allows per match

Issy W
3.52
Stade de Reims W
1.95

finishing

Issy W+0.00on par
Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issy W ↓

Stade de Reims W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Issy W or draw
40%
Issy W or Stade de Reims W
81%
Draw or Stade de Reims W
79%

Winning margin

Issy W wins by 2+
9%
Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Issy W 1+ goals
74%
Issy W 2+ goals
39%
Issy W 3+ goals
16%
Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
91%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
69%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Issy W (draw refunded)
25%
Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issy W at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.52 · 23 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issy W attack 0.78 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Issy W defence 3.52 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Issy W scores more
21%
level
19%
Stade de Reims W scores more
60%

Stade de Reims W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Issy W 1–2 Stade de Reims W

Stade de Reims W beat Issy W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Le Gallo in Boulogne-Billancourt.