Issy W 0–5 Paris FC W: Result & Stats

Issy W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Paris FC W

10/30/2021

Feminine Division 1 · Round 7Stade Le Gallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Issy W11%

×Draw15%

Paris FC W74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Issy WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

2.73

Issy W

0.95

Paris FC W

2.73

Paris FC W creates 187% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 87 away

0.78

creates per match

1.94

3.52

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Issy W

0.78

Paris FC W

1.94

allows per match

Issy W

3.52

Paris FC W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Issy W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issy W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–39%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Issy W or draw

26%

Issy W or Paris FC W

85%

Draw or Paris FC W

89%

Winning margin

Issy W wins by 2+

3%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

Issy W 1+ goals

61%

Issy W 2+ goals

25%

Issy W 3+ goals

7%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

93%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

75%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Issy W (draw refunded)

13%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issy W at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.52 · 23 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issy W attack 0.78 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Issy W defence 3.52 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Issy W scores more

11%

level

15%

Paris FC W scores more

74%

Paris FC W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff