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Issy W vs Montpellier W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Issy W
Issy W
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Montpellier W
Montpellier W
5/28/2022Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Cité des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Issy W16%
×Draw17%
Montpellier W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issy W
1.21
Montpellier W
2.59

Montpellier W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 86 away

creates per match

Issy W
0.78
Montpellier W
1.67

allows per match

Issy W
3.52
Montpellier W
1.65

finishing

Issy W+0.00on par
Montpellier W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issy W ↓

Montpellier W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Issy W or draw
33%
Issy W or Montpellier W
83%
Draw or Montpellier W
84%

Winning margin

Issy W wins by 2+
6%
Montpellier W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Issy W 1+ goals
70%
Issy W 2+ goals
34%
Issy W 3+ goals
12%
Montpellier W 1+ goals
92%
Montpellier W 2+ goals
73%
Montpellier W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Issy W (draw refunded)
19%
Montpellier W (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issy W at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.52 · 23 matches

Montpellier W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issy W attack 0.78 + Montpellier W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Montpellier W attack 1.67 + Issy W defence 3.52 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Issy W scores more
16%
level
17%
Montpellier W scores more
67%

Montpellier W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Montpellier W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Issy W vs Montpellier W

Montpellier W beat Issy W 5-2 in Feminine Division 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Cité des Sports in Issy-les-Moulineaux.