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Issy W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Issy W
Issy W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Lyon W
Lyon W
5/9/2021Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 20Stade Le Gallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Issy W4%
×Draw8%
Lyon W88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issy W
0.64
Lyon W
3.54

Lyon W creates 453% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 85 away

creates per match

Issy W
0.78
Lyon W
3.55

allows per match

Issy W
3.52
Lyon W
0.49

finishing

Issy W+0.00on par
Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issy W ↓

Lyon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–312%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Issy W or draw
12%
Issy W or Lyon W
92%
Draw or Lyon W
96%

Winning margin

Issy W wins by 2+
1%
Lyon W wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Issy W 1+ goals
47%
Issy W 2+ goals
14%
Issy W 3+ goals
3%
Lyon W 1+ goals
97%
Lyon W 2+ goals
86%
Lyon W 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Issy W (draw refunded)
4%
Lyon W (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issy W at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.52 · 23 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issy W attack 0.78 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.64

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Issy W defence 3.52 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Issy W scores more
4%
level
8%
Lyon W scores more
88%

Lyon W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Issy W 0–4 Lyon W

Lyon W beat Issy W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Le Gallo in Boulogne-Billancourt.