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Issia Wazi vs Racing d'Abidjan — Ligue 1 2019

Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
FT
1 – 1
Racing d'Abidjan
Racing d'Abidjan
12/28/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Issia Wazi22%
×Draw27%
Racing d'Abidjan51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issia Wazi
0.84
Racing d'Abidjan
1.44

Racing d'Abidjan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 89 away

creates per match

Issia Wazi
0.60
Racing d'Abidjan
1.18

allows per match

Issia Wazi
1.70
Racing d'Abidjan
1.08

finishing

Issia Wazi+0.00on par
Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issia Wazi ↓

Racing d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Issia Wazi or draw
49%
Issia Wazi or Racing d'Abidjan
73%
Draw or Racing d'Abidjan
78%

Winning margin

Issia Wazi wins by 2+
7%
Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Issia Wazi 1+ goals
57%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
21%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
5%
Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals
76%
Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals
42%
Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
30%
Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issia Wazi at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Racing d'Abidjan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issia Wazi attack 0.60 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.18 + Issia Wazi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Issia Wazi scores more
22%
level
27%
Racing d'Abidjan scores more
51%

Racing d'Abidjan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Racing d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Issia Wazi 1–1 Racing d'Abidjan

Issia Wazi and Racing d'Abidjan drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.