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Issia Wazi vs Bouaké — Ligue 1 2019

Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
FT
1 – 1
Bouaké
Bouaké
3/7/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Issia Wazi24%
×Draw29%
Bouaké47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issia Wazi
0.82
Bouaké
1.27

Bouaké creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 88 away

creates per match

Issia Wazi
0.60
Bouaké
0.85

allows per match

Issia Wazi
1.70
Bouaké
1.05

finishing

Issia Wazi+0.00on par
Bouaké+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issia Wazi ↓

Bouaké →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Issia Wazi or draw
53%
Issia Wazi or Bouaké
71%
Draw or Bouaké
76%

Winning margin

Issia Wazi wins by 2+
8%
Bouaké wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Issia Wazi 1+ goals
56%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
20%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
5%
Bouaké 1+ goals
72%
Bouaké 2+ goals
36%
Bouaké 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
34%
Bouaké (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issia Wazi at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Bouaké away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.05 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issia Wazi attack 0.60 + Bouaké defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Bouaké attack 0.85 + Issia Wazi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Issia Wazi scores more
24%
level
29%
Bouaké scores more
47%

Bouaké at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bouaké will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Issia Wazi 1–1 Bouaké

Issia Wazi and Bouaké drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.