Israel 1–1 Slovenia: Result & Stats

Israel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovenia

E. Zahavi 55'

A. Šporar 48'

3/21/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Israel41%

×Draw24%

Slovenia35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsraelExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.45

Israel

1.58

Slovenia

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

1.40

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Israel

2.00

Slovenia

1.50

allows per match

Israel

1.40

Slovenia

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Israel or draw

65%

Israel or Slovenia

76%

Draw or Slovenia

59%

Winning margin

Israel wins by 2+

20%

Slovenia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Israel 1+ goals

79%

Israel 2+ goals

47%

Israel 3+ goals

21%

Slovenia 1+ goals

77%

Slovenia 2+ goals

42%

Slovenia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Israel (draw refunded)

54%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Slovenia away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel attack 2.00 + Slovenia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Slovenia attack 1.50 + Israel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Israel scores more

41%

level

24%

Slovenia scores more

35%

Israel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Israel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Iličić

Slovenia · F

8.5

Match Events

29'

48'

50'

55'

62'

63'

77'

79'

85'

86'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IsraelSlovenia

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots17

4Corners8

13Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots17

4On Target7

2Off Target4

1Blocked6

5Inside Box13

2Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

512Total Passes408

418Accurate Passes328

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3