Israel 7–0 Guatemala: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Israel

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Guatemala

B. Sahar 88' (pen)

D. Saba 79', 62'

M. Dabour 53', 37'

T. Tawatha 27'

E. Zahavi 5'

11/15/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Winner Stadium (Netanya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Israel67%

×Draw18%

Guatemala15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsraelExpected goals in this matchGuatemala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.03

Israel

2.40

Guatemala

1.03

Israel creates 133% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

2.83

creates per match

0.57

1.50

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Israel

2.83

Guatemala

0.57

allows per match

Israel

1.50

Guatemala

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel+0.00on par

Guatemala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel ↓

Guatemala →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Israel or draw

85%

Israel or Guatemala

82%

Draw or Guatemala

33%

Winning margin

Israel wins by 2+

45%

Guatemala wins by 2+

Team goals

Israel 1+ goals

91%

Israel 2+ goals

69%

Israel 3+ goals

42%

Guatemala 1+ goals

64%

Guatemala 2+ goals

28%

Guatemala 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Israel (draw refunded)

82%

Guatemala (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Israel at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Guatemala away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Israel attack 2.83 + Guatemala defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.40

Guatemala attack 0.57 + Israel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Israel scores more

67%

level

18%

Guatemala scores more

15%

Israel at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Israel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

29'

37'

53'

60'

62'

72'

79'

88'

B. SaharPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff