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Réal Bamako vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
FT
0 – 1
Djoliba
Djoliba
12/12/2019Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 10Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Réal Bamako31%
×Draw31%
Djoliba38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Réal Bamako
0.92
Djoliba
1.04

Djoliba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

creates per match

Réal Bamako
1.31
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Réal Bamako
0.70
Djoliba
0.53

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw
62%
Réal Bamako or Djoliba
69%
Draw or Djoliba
69%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+
11%
Djoliba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals
60%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
23%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
7%
Djoliba 1+ goals
65%
Djoliba 2+ goals
28%
Djoliba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
45%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Djoliba defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.92

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Réal Bamako scores more
31%
level
31%
Djoliba scores more
38%

Djoliba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Réal Bamako vs Djoliba

Djoliba beat Réal Bamako 1-0 in Première Division on December 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.