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Djoliba vs Réal Bamako — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Réal Bamako
Réal Bamako
2/2/2025Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Djoliba44%
×Draw30%
Réal Bamako26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.16
Réal Bamako
0.82

Djoliba creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 99 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Réal Bamako
1.15

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Réal Bamako
0.74

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Réal Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
74%
Djoliba or Réal Bamako
70%
Draw or Réal Bamako
56%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
19%
Réal Bamako wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
69%
Djoliba 2+ goals
32%
Djoliba 3+ goals
11%
Réal Bamako 1+ goals
56%
Réal Bamako 2+ goals
20%
Réal Bamako 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
63%
Réal Bamako (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.16

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Djoliba scores more
44%
level
30%
Réal Bamako scores more
26%

Djoliba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djoliba vs Réal Bamako

Djoliba beat Réal Bamako 3-0 in Première Division on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.