Israel U19 1–1 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Israel U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Poland U19

R. Binyamin 25'

F. Koperski 10'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Israel U1944%

×Draw25%

Poland U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Israel U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

Israel U19

1.56

Poland U19

1.27

Israel U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.36

1.19

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Israel U19

1.94

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

Israel U19

1.19

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Israel U19 or draw

69%

Israel U19 or Poland U19

75%

Draw or Poland U19

56%

Winning margin

Israel U19 wins by 2+

22%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Israel U19 1+ goals

79%

Israel U19 2+ goals

46%

Israel U19 3+ goals

21%

Poland U19 1+ goals

72%

Poland U19 2+ goals

36%

Poland U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel U19 attack 1.94 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + Israel U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Israel U19 scores more

44%

level

25%

Poland U19 scores more

31%

Israel U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

F. Koperski

16'

K. Urbański← F. Koperski

25'

R. Binyamin

63'

A. Yona← A. Khalaili

65'

S. Elgabi

69'

A. Salman← I. Toklomati Jorno

69'

Y. Laish← S. Elgaby

71'

M. Brzozowski← J. Lewicki

77'

R. Nawi

78'

D. Biniek← I. Strzałek

78'

S. Mucha← T. Pieńko

80'

H. Shibli← R. Binyamin

80'

Z. Shimol← A. Lugasi

90+3'

A. Kozubal

Israel

Poland

1

4

7

9

3

▼

Lewicki

6

Kozubal

5

⚽

▼

Koperski

14

Oyedele

21

▼

Pieńko

20

▼

19

1

2

3

5

▼

13

15

6

14

⚽

▼

Binyamin

10

▼

Lugasi

7

▼

Khalaili

9

▼

Jorno

Manager: O. Haim

63'▲A. Yona←▼A. Khalaili

69'▲A. Salman←▼I. Toklomati Jorno

69'▲Y. Laish←▼S. Elgaby

80'▲H. Shibli←▼R. Binyamin

80'▲Z. Shimol←▼A. Lugasi

Israel U19 substitutes

8Yona20Salman17Laish11Shibli19Shimol12Deznet16Alkokin18Amedi

Manager: M. Brosz

16'▲K. Urbański←▼F. Koperski

71'▲M. Brzozowski←▼J. Lewicki

78'▲D. Biniek←▼I. Strzałek

78'▲S. Mucha←▼T. Pieńko

Poland U19 substitutes

10Urbański11Brzozowski17Biniek18Mucha12Bobek