Israel U19 3–1 Northern Ireland U19: Result & Stats

Israel U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Northern Ireland U19

Y. Ranon 83'

L. Hazan 52'

D. Tishler 6'

M. Orr 77'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Israel U1949%

×Draw27%

Northern Ireland U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Israel U19Expected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.93

Israel U19

1.43

Northern Ireland U19

0.93

Israel U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

1.94

creates per match

0.67

1.19

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Israel U19

1.94

Northern Ireland U19

0.67

allows per match

Israel U19

1.19

Northern Ireland U19

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Israel U19+0.00on par

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel U19 ↓

Northern Ireland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Israel U19 or draw

75%

Israel U19 or Northern Ireland U19

73%

Draw or Northern Ireland U19

51%

Winning margin

Israel U19 wins by 2+

24%

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Israel U19 1+ goals

76%

Israel U19 2+ goals

42%

Israel U19 3+ goals

17%

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

61%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

24%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Northern Ireland U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel U19 attack 1.94 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.43

Northern Ireland U19 attack 0.67 + Israel U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Israel U19 scores more

49%

level

27%

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

25%

Israel U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Tishler

27'

Y. Balay← E. Khalaili

52'

L. Hazan

62'

C. Burnside← D. Stitt

62'

M. Orr← J. Briggs

63'

S. Abu Farkhi← Y. Peretz

64'

S. Devine

67'

C. Burnside

70'

Y. Belay

71'

77'

81'

81'

81'

81'

B. McClure← Jack Doherty

83'

Y. Ranon

85'

K. Hawthorne

88'

I. Ehud

Israel

Northern

1

Munn

4

▼

5

2

3

6

▼

Doherty

10

Turley

17

▼

Stitt

16

▼

19

11

1

5

▼

Lannes

2

Schwartz

3

⚽

Tishler

4

Waheb

6

Ehud-Zair

10

⚽

▼

Hazan

8

Oli

11

▼

Zoabi

7

▼

Khalaili

12

▼

Peretz

Manager: O. Haim

27'▲Y. Balay←▼E. Khalaili

63'▲S. Abu Farkhi←▼Y. Peretz

81'▲A. Banay←▼K. Zoabi

81'▲R. Magor←▼L. Hazan

81'▲Y. Ranon←▼T. Lannes

Israel U19 substitutes

19Balay9Farkhi14Banay15Magor16Ranon20Much18Cohen13Baruch17Shibli

Manager: G. McAuley

62'▲C. Burnside←▼D. Stitt

62'▲M. Orr←▼J. Briggs

71'▲B. Graham←▼C. ONeill

81'▲B. McClure←▼Jack Doherty

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

7Burnside15Orr9Graham8McClure12Metcalf14Haughey18Corrigan