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Israel U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Israel U19
Israel U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Armenia U19
Armenia U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Israel U1962%
×Draw20%
Armenia U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Israel U19
2.19
Armenia U19
1.09

Israel U19 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Israel U19
1.94
Armenia U19
1.00

allows per match

Israel U19
1.19
Armenia U19
2.43

finishing

Israel U19+0.00on par
Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Israel U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Israel U19 or draw
82%
Israel U19 or Armenia U19
80%
Draw or Armenia U19
38%

Winning margin

Israel U19 wins by 2+
39%
Armenia U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Israel U19 1+ goals
89%
Israel U19 2+ goals
64%
Israel U19 3+ goals
37%
Armenia U19 1+ goals
66%
Armenia U19 2+ goals
30%
Armenia U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Israel U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Armenia U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Israel U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Israel U19 attack 1.94 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.19

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Israel U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Israel U19 scores more
62%
level
20%
Armenia U19 scores more
18%

Israel U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Israel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Israel U19 1–0 Armenia U19

Israel U19 beat Armenia U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.