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Isparta 32 Spor vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Isparta 32 Spor
Isparta 32 Spor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
11/1/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundIsparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Isparta 32 Spor75%
×Draw16%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isparta 32 Spor
2.31
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.62

Isparta 32 Spor creates 273% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Isparta 32 Spor
1.29
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.67

allows per match

Isparta 32 Spor
0.57
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
3.33

finishing

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isparta 32 Spor ↓

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Isparta 32 Spor or draw
92%
Isparta 32 Spor or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
84%
Draw or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
25%

Winning margin

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+
52%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals
90%
Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals
67%
Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals
40%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1+ goals
46%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2+ goals
13%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)
90%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isparta 32 Spor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.29 + Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu attack 0.67 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Isparta 32 Spor scores more
75%
level
16%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu scores more
8%

Isparta 32 Spor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Isparta 32 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Isparta 32 Spor 3–0 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Isparta 32 Spor beat Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Isparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu in Isparta.