Isparta 32 Spor 4–0 Kırşehir Belediyespor

Isparta 32 Spor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kırşehir Belediyespor

9/4/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundIsparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Isparta 32 Spor70%

×Draw20%

Kırşehir Belediyespor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isparta 32 SporExpected goals in this matchKırşehir Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.53

Isparta 32 Spor

1.90

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.53

Isparta 32 Spor creates 258% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.50

0.57

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Isparta 32 Spor

1.29

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.50

allows per match

Isparta 32 Spor

0.57

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isparta 32 Spor ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Isparta 32 Spor or draw

90%

Isparta 32 Spor or Kırşehir Belediyespor

80%

Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor

30%

Winning margin

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+

43%

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals

85%

Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals

56%

Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals

29%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

41%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

10%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)

88%

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isparta 32 Spor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.29 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Isparta 32 Spor scores more

70%

level

20%

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

10%

Isparta 32 Spor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Isparta 32 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff