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Isparta 32 Spor vs Güzide Gebzespor — League #205 2026

Isparta 32 Spor
Isparta 32 Spor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
K. Baykus 88' (pen), 79'
E. Kurtulus 73' (OG)
B. Altintas 10'
2/21/2026League #205League #205 · Kırmızı - 25Isparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Isparta 32 Spor51%
×Draw26%
Güzide Gebzespor23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isparta 32 Spor
1.52
Güzide Gebzespor
0.93

Isparta 32 Spor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

creates per match

Isparta 32 Spor
1.75
Güzide Gebzespor
1.11

allows per match

Isparta 32 Spor
0.75
Güzide Gebzespor
1.29

finishing

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par
Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isparta 32 Spor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Isparta 32 Spor or draw
77%
Isparta 32 Spor or Güzide Gebzespor
74%
Draw or Güzide Gebzespor
49%

Winning margin

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+
26%
Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals
78%
Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals
45%
Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals
20%
Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
61%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
24%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)
69%
Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isparta 32 Spor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.75 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Isparta 32 Spor scores more
51%
level
26%
Güzide Gebzespor scores more
23%

Isparta 32 Spor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Isparta 32 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
B. Altintas↳ T. Yurtseven
73'
E. KurtulusOwn goal
79'
K. Baykus
88'
K. BaykusPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #205: Isparta 32 Spor 2–2 Güzide Gebzespor

Isparta 32 Spor and Güzide Gebzespor drew 2-2 in League #205 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: B. Altintas (10'), E. Kurtulus (73' o.g.), K. Baykus (79', 88' pen).

The match was played at Isparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu in Isparta.