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Isparta 32 Spor vs Alanya 1221 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Isparta 32 Spor
Isparta 32 Spor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
10/21/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundIsparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Isparta 32 Spor64%
×Draw22%
Alanya 1221 FK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isparta 32 Spor
1.90
Alanya 1221 FK
0.78

Isparta 32 Spor creates 144% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Isparta 32 Spor
1.29
Alanya 1221 FK
1.00

allows per match

Isparta 32 Spor
0.57
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50

finishing

Isparta 32 Spor+0.00on par
Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isparta 32 Spor ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Isparta 32 Spor or draw
85%
Isparta 32 Spor or Alanya 1221 FK
78%
Draw or Alanya 1221 FK
36%

Winning margin

Isparta 32 Spor wins by 2+
38%
Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Isparta 32 Spor 1+ goals
85%
Isparta 32 Spor 2+ goals
56%
Isparta 32 Spor 3+ goals
29%
Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
54%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
18%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Isparta 32 Spor (draw refunded)
81%
Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isparta 32 Spor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isparta 32 Spor attack 1.29 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + Isparta 32 Spor defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Isparta 32 Spor scores more
64%
level
22%
Alanya 1221 FK scores more
15%

Isparta 32 Spor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Isparta 32 Spor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isparta 32 Spor vs Alanya 1221 FK

Alanya 1221 FK beat Isparta 32 Spor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Isparta Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu in Isparta.