ISOHSA 3–1 Union Abong-Mbang: Result & Stats

ISOHSA

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Union Abong-Mbang

4/5/2025

Elite Two · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ISOHSA54%

×Draw24%

Union Abong-Mbang21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ISOHSAExpected goals in this matchUnion Abong-Mbang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.97

ISOHSA

1.70

Union Abong-Mbang

0.97

ISOHSA creates 75% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.05

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

ISOHSA

2.05

Union Abong-Mbang

0.95

allows per match

ISOHSA

1.00

Union Abong-Mbang

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Union Abong-Mbang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw

79%

ISOHSA or Union Abong-Mbang

76%

Draw or Union Abong-Mbang

46%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+

30%

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals

82%

ISOHSA 2+ goals

51%

ISOHSA 3+ goals

24%

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals

62%

Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals

25%

Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)

72%

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Union Abong-Mbang away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.70

Union Abong-Mbang attack 0.95 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ISOHSA scores more

54%

level

24%

Union Abong-Mbang scores more

21%

ISOHSA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff