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ISOHSA vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
3/9/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ISOHSA54%
×Draw24%
Tonnerre22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.71
Tonnerre
1.01

ISOHSA creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 42 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
78%
ISOHSA or Tonnerre
76%
Draw or Tonnerre
46%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
29%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
82%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
51%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
24%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
64%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
27%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
71%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ISOHSA scores more
54%
level
24%
Tonnerre scores more
22%

ISOHSA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: ISOHSA 3–0 Tonnerre

ISOHSA beat Tonnerre 3-0 in Elite Two on March 9, 2025.