ISOHSA 1–0 Panthère: Result & Stats | Elite Two

ISOHSA

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Panthère

10/28/2023

Elite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ISOHSA39%

×Draw23%

Panthère38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ISOHSAExpected goals in this matchPanthère

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.59

ISOHSA

1.61

Panthère

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

2.05

creates per match

2.18

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

ISOHSA

2.05

Panthère

2.18

allows per match

ISOHSA

1.00

Panthère

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par

Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Panthère →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw

62%

ISOHSA or Panthère

77%

Draw or Panthère

61%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+

19%

Panthère wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals

80%

ISOHSA 2+ goals

48%

ISOHSA 3+ goals

22%

Panthère 1+ goals

80%

Panthère 2+ goals

47%

Panthère 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)

51%

Panthère (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Panthère away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Panthère defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.61

Panthère attack 2.18 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ISOHSA scores more

39%

level

23%

Panthère scores more

38%

ISOHSA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff