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ISOHSA vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
12/20/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ISOHSA64%
×Draw21%
Leopard de Douala15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.94
Leopard de Douala
0.82

ISOHSA creates 137% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
85%
ISOHSA or Leopard de Douala
79%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
36%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
38%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
86%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
58%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
30%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
56%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
20%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
81%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ISOHSA scores more
64%
level
21%
Leopard de Douala scores more
15%

ISOHSA at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ISOHSA vs Leopard de Douala

ISOHSA beat Leopard de Douala 4-0 in Elite Two on December 20, 2023.