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ISOHSA vs Eding Sport — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
1/6/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ISOHSA53%
×Draw25%
Eding Sport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.65
Eding Sport
0.97

ISOHSA creates 70% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
Eding Sport
0.93

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
Eding Sport
1.25

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
78%
ISOHSA or Eding Sport
75%
Draw or Eding Sport
47%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
29%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
81%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
49%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
23%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
62%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
25%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
71%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.65

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ISOHSA scores more
53%
level
25%
Eding Sport scores more
22%

ISOHSA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ISOHSA vs Eding Sport

Eding Sport beat ISOHSA 2-0 in Elite Two on January 6, 2024.