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ISOHSA vs Bafmeng United — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bafmeng United
Bafmeng United
5/2/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ISOHSA55%
×Draw23%
Bafmeng United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.79
Bafmeng United
1.02

ISOHSA creates 75% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 34 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
Bafmeng United
1.03

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
Bafmeng United
1.53

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
Bafmeng United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Bafmeng United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
79%
ISOHSA or Bafmeng United
77%
Draw or Bafmeng United
45%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
31%
Bafmeng United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
83%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
53%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
26%
Bafmeng United 1+ goals
64%
Bafmeng United 2+ goals
27%
Bafmeng United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
72%
Bafmeng United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Bafmeng United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Bafmeng United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bafmeng United attack 1.03 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ISOHSA scores more
55%
level
23%
Bafmeng United scores more
21%

ISOHSA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ISOHSA vs Bafmeng United

ISOHSA and Bafmeng United drew 1-1 in Elite Two on May 2, 2025.