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ISOHSA vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
6/23/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Group

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ISOHSA42%
×Draw24%
APEJES Academy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.57
APEJES Academy
1.40

ISOHSA creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
66%
ISOHSA or APEJES Academy
76%
Draw or APEJES Academy
58%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
21%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
79%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
46%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
21%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
75%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
41%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
55%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.57

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ISOHSA scores more
42%
level
24%
APEJES Academy scores more
34%

ISOHSA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ISOHSA vs APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat ISOHSA 1-0 in Elite Two on June 23, 2025.