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ISOHSA vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

ISOHSA
ISOHSA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
2/2/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ISOHSA49%
×Draw24%
Aigle Royal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ISOHSA
1.65
Aigle Royal
1.15

ISOHSA creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

creates per match

ISOHSA
2.05
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

ISOHSA
1.00
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

ISOHSA+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ISOHSA ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ISOHSA or draw
73%
ISOHSA or Aigle Royal
76%
Draw or Aigle Royal
51%

Winning margin

ISOHSA wins by 2+
26%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ISOHSA 1+ goals
81%
ISOHSA 2+ goals
49%
ISOHSA 3+ goals
23%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
68%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
32%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ISOHSA (draw refunded)
65%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ISOHSA at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ISOHSA attack 2.05 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + ISOHSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ISOHSA scores more
49%
level
24%
Aigle Royal scores more
27%

ISOHSA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ISOHSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: ISOHSA 2–1 Aigle Royal

ISOHSA beat Aigle Royal 2-1 in Elite Two on February 2, 2025.