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Ismaning vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Ismaning
Ismaning
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
7/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 3Professor Erich Greipl Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ismaning35%
×Draw24%
Schwaben Augsburg41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaning
1.42
Schwaben Augsburg
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ismaning
1.52
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Ismaning
1.45
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Ismaning+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaning ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ismaning or draw
59%
Ismaning or Schwaben Augsburg
76%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
65%

Winning margin

Ismaning wins by 2+
16%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ismaning 1+ goals
76%
Ismaning 2+ goals
41%
Ismaning 3+ goals
17%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
79%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
46%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ismaning (draw refunded)
46%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaning at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaning attack 1.52 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Ismaning defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ismaning scores more
35%
level
24%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
41%

Schwaben Augsburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ismaning vs Schwaben Augsburg

Ismaning and Schwaben Augsburg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Professor Erich Greipl Stadion in Ismaning.