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Ismaning vs Grünwald — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Ismaning
Ismaning
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grünwald
Grünwald
10/19/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 17Professor Erich Greipl Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ismaning57%
×Draw20%
Grünwald23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaning
2.23
Grünwald
1.35

Ismaning creates 65% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ismaning
1.52
Grünwald
1.25

allows per match

Ismaning
1.45
Grünwald
2.94

finishing

Ismaning+0.00on par
Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaning ↓

Grünwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ismaning or draw
77%
Ismaning or Grünwald
80%
Draw or Grünwald
43%

Winning margin

Ismaning wins by 2+
35%
Grünwald wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ismaning 1+ goals
89%
Ismaning 2+ goals
65%
Ismaning 3+ goals
38%
Grünwald 1+ goals
74%
Grünwald 2+ goals
39%
Grünwald 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ismaning (draw refunded)
72%
Grünwald (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaning at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaning attack 1.52 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.23

Grünwald attack 1.25 + Ismaning defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ismaning scores more
57%
level
20%
Grünwald scores more
23%

Ismaning at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ismaning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Ismaning 2–2 Grünwald

Ismaning and Grünwald drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Professor Erich Greipl Stadion in Ismaning.