Ismaily SC 1–2 Wadi Degla: Result & Stats

Ismaily SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wadi Degla

M. Ragab 83' (OG)

F. Boli 61'

H. Mansour 45' (OG)

2/20/2026

Premier League · Round 18Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ismaily SC33%

×Draw29%

Wadi Degla38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ismaily SCExpected goals in this matchWadi Degla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.17

Ismaily SC

1.07

Wadi Degla

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 66 away

1.05

creates per match

1.12

1.22

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ismaily SC

1.05

Wadi Degla

1.12

allows per match

Ismaily SC

1.22

Wadi Degla

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Wadi Degla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw

62%

Ismaily SC or Wadi Degla

71%

Draw or Wadi Degla

67%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

13%

Wadi Degla wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

66%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

29%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

9%

Wadi Degla 1+ goals

69%

Wadi Degla 2+ goals

33%

Wadi Degla 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

46%

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Wadi Degla away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.05 + Wadi Degla defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Wadi Degla attack 1.12 + Ismaily SC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ismaily SC scores more

33%

level

29%

Wadi Degla scores more

38%

Wadi Degla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

D. Miskic

Wadi Degla · M

7.7

Match Events

27'

H. Mansour← M. Ehab

35'

M. Samir← I. Abdelaal

43'

Omar Adly

45'

H. MansourOwn goal

46'

M. Khatary←

61'

F. Boli↳ D. Miskic

63'

Mohamed Hassan

65'

I. Adel← M. Abdelaati

65'

Zizo← M. Diasty

74'

80'

80'

80'

83'

M. RagabOwn goal

86'

A. Abdelsalam← M. Hamdi

86'

Y. Oya← M. Abdelrahim

87'

Anwar Abdelsalam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IsmailyWadi

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots7

0.37Expected Goals (xG)0.77

5Corners7

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target2

2Off Target4

3Blocked1

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box0

Passing

44%Possession56%

243Total Passes308

140Accurate Passes220

58%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.82Goals Prevented-0.82

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1