Ismaily SC vs Tanta SC — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Ismaily SC51%
Tanta SC22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ismaily SC creates 69% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ismaily SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches
Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.49
Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Ismaily SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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AL Assiouty
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El Mokawloon
Misr EL MakasaIsmaily SC
El Geish
Enppi
Wadi Degla
Al Ittihad
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El Entag EL Harby
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Petrojet
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Nogoom El Mostakbal FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ismaily SC host Tanta SC on Wednesday, 4 December 2019 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Ismaily SC vs Tanta SC
Ismaily SC and Tanta SC drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2019.
The match was played at Ismaïlia Stadium in Ismailia.