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Ismaily SC vs Nogoom El Mostakbal FC — Premier League 2018

Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
2/16/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Gehaz El Reyada Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ismaily SC40%
×Draw27%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaily SC
1.31
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.18

Ismaily SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ismaily SC
1.04
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12

allows per match

Ismaily SC
1.23
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.59

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw
67%
Ismaily SC or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
73%
Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
60%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+
18%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals
73%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
38%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
14%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
69%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
33%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
54%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ismaily SC scores more
40%
level
27%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
33%

Ismaily SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ismaily SC 3–2 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

Ismaily SC beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3-2 in Premier League on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gehaz El Reyada Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).