Ismaily SC 2–1 National Bank of Egypt

Ismaily SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

National Bank of Egypt

12/5/2023

Premier League · Round 8Ismaïlia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Ismaily SC34%

×Draw28%

National Bank of Egypt38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ismaily SCExpected goals in this matchNational Bank of Egypt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Ismaily SC

1.11

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 97 away

1.04

creates per match

1.14

1.23

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Ismaily SC

1.04

National Bank of Egypt

1.14

allows per match

Ismaily SC

1.23

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

National Bank of Egypt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw

62%

Ismaily SC or National Bank of Egypt

72%

Draw or National Bank of Egypt

66%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+

14%

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals

67%

Ismaily SC 2+ goals

30%

Ismaily SC 3+ goals

10%

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

70%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

33%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)

47%

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ismaily SC scores more

34%

level

28%

National Bank of Egypt scores more

38%

National Bank of Egypt at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff