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Ismaily SC vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018

Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
2/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ismaily SC37%
×Draw29%
El Gouna FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ismaily SC
1.14
El Gouna FC
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ismaily SC
1.04
El Gouna FC
0.91

allows per match

Ismaily SC
1.23
El Gouna FC
1.24

finishing

Ismaily SC+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ismaily SC ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ismaily SC or draw
66%
Ismaily SC or El Gouna FC
71%
Draw or El Gouna FC
63%

Winning margin

Ismaily SC wins by 2+
15%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ismaily SC 1+ goals
68%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
32%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
11%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
66%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
29%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
52%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ismaily SC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ismaily SC attack 1.04 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Ismaily SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ismaily SC scores more
37%
level
29%
El Gouna FC scores more
34%

Ismaily SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ismaily SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ismaily SC vs El Gouna FC

El Gouna FC beat Ismaily SC 2-1 in Premier League on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.