Iskra 1–1 Zeta: Result & Stats | First League

Iskra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zeta

V. Rogošić 90+3' (pen)

V. Kalezić 17'

4/7/2021

First League · Round 28Stadion Braća Velašević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iskra23%

×Draw23%

Zeta53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IskraExpected goals in this matchZeta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.78

Iskra

1.10

Zeta

1.78

Zeta creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.40

2.17

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Iskra

1.00

Zeta

1.40

allows per match

Iskra

2.17

Zeta

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par

Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Zeta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Iskra or draw

47%

Iskra or Zeta

77%

Draw or Zeta

77%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+

9%

Zeta wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals

67%

Iskra 2+ goals

30%

Iskra 3+ goals

10%

Zeta 1+ goals

83%

Zeta 2+ goals

53%

Zeta 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)

31%

Zeta (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Zeta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.00 + Zeta defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Zeta attack 1.40 + Iskra defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Iskra scores more

23%

level

23%

Zeta scores more

53%

Zeta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zeta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Sahman

17'

V. Kalezić

19'

L. Lambulic

44'

M. Bakrac

46'

M. Račić← B. Marković

60'

S. Yamamoto← L. Malešević

60'

V. Rogošić← S. Luković

66'

B. Milić← I. Šahman

78'

P. Stojanović← I. Vuković

86'

Matija Lambulić← Mijat Lambulić

90+2'

G. Milojko

90+2'

M. Burzanovic

90+3'

Z.

90+1'

P. Orlandić← L. Lambulić

90+3'

V. RogošićPenalty

Iskra

Zeta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Nedović

46'▲M. Račić←▼B. Marković

60'▲S. Yamamoto←▼L. Malešević

60'▲V. Rogošić←▼S. Luković

66'▲B. Milić←▼I. Šahman

78'▲P. Stojanović←▼I. Vuković

Iskra substitutes

RačićYamamotoRogošićMilićStojanović

Manager: R. Dostanić

86'▲Matija Lambulić←▼Mijat Lambulić

90+1'▲P. Orlandić←▼L. Lambulić

Zeta substitutes

LambulićOrlandić

Iskra 1 – 1 Zeta

Iskra and Zeta drew 1-1 in First League on April 7, 2021.

Goals: V. Kalezić (17'), V. Rogošić (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Braća Velašević in Danilovgrad.

Iskra vs Zeta — First League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Iskra 1 – 1 Zeta